When the Pangi River in Davao City swelled to new heights in June 2011, 29 people lost their lives and 50,000 residents had to flee their homes. In an editorial, the local daily “Sun.Star Davao” commented: “The rapid urban development has caused encroachment into the city drainage, preventing the water from seeping into the soil with all the construction in the heart of downtown Davao.
“The massive development of housing subdivisions and other residential buildings has also contributed to the flooding in Davao as the natural waterways in the countryside have been eliminated during construction stage,” the editorial continued. “This is the price that people of Davao City will have to pay for progress, flood today and more flooding tomorrow.”
But those are only part of the problem. Secretary Jesus G. Dureza of the Office of the Presidential Adviser on Peace Process believes that the constant flooding now happening in Davao City is due to sea level rise. “My calculation is that (the sea level) has risen by one foot over a period of 20 years,” the former press secretary wrote in his column, “Advocacy Mindanao.” “Hence, rain waters and floods no longer easily flow or empty out into the sea. They are clogged in the waterways and spill out into the riverbanks.”
Dureza said that when flood waters rush down during high tide, they get stuck, at times and worse, a “backflow” of seawater during high tide. When seawaters rise high, it flows back inland through rivers. Hence, low-lying areas or subdivisions or residential areas around or near riverbanks are in trouble.
“I know this because I personally witnessed how the sea level had gone up over the years,” he pointed out. “Our family lived for four years in our resort house by the sea in Davao City in the 1990’s while we were slowly renovating our house in the GSIS area inland. Our beach house was in fact built over the water, jutting out into the sea, with stilt cement posts and under our floor was sea water rising and ebbing.”
According to him, the highest water level during high tides left water traces on the cement posts. “I would notice because every time I woke up in the morning, I could see the water markings,” he said.
Recently, Dureza asked his resort employee to check the water markings on the same post he was monitoring for years. “He told me the highest tide level has risen by about one foot or 12 inches from its highest level 20 years ago. Our science people may dispute this but I can show them the posts. In fact, we had to demolish one resort hut which was also jutting out into the sea because the water level rose to touch the floor over the years. It was way above the water when it was built.”
Of the 25 cities most exposed to a 1-meter sea-level rise, about 19 of them are located in the Asia and Pacific region, according to a new study released by the Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Curiously enough, seven of the 19 cities in the region are found in the Philippines. In Mindanao, Davao together with Butuan have been identified. There are four in Luzon (Manila, Taguig, Caloocan and Malabon) and only one in the Visayas (Iloilo).
“Under a business-as-usual scenario, a 6-degree Celsius temperature increase is projected over the Asian landmass by the end of the century,” said the study’s report, “A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific,” which Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research co-produced.
“Coastal regions of Asia and the Pacific are among the most vulnerable to climate change-related SLR (sea-level-rise),” the report pointed out, adding that global flood losses are expected to increase to US$52 billion per year by 2050 from US$6 billion in 2005.
It must be recalled that a previous study published in Nature said that the world’s oceans are now rising far faster than they did in the past. The current sea-level rise rate – which started in 1990 – is 2.5 times faster than it was from 1900 to 1990.
The study found that for much of the 20th century, sea level rise was about 30% less than earlier research had figured. “But that’s not good news because about 25 years ago the seas started rising faster and the acceleration in 1990 turns out to be more dramatic than previously calculated,” wrote Seth Borenstein in a dispatch for Associated Press.
“We’re seeing a significant acceleration in the past few decades,” study lead author Carling Hay, a geophysical researcher at Harvard University, was quoted as saying.
According to the report written by Borenstein, previous research showed that between 1900 and 1990, the seas rose about two-thirds of an inch a decade. The new study recalculates the 1900-1990 rate to less than half an inch a decade. Old and new research both say that since 1990s seas are rising at about 30 millimeters a decade.
“The implications are troubling – accelerated ocean warming, ice sheet collapse and sea level rise – all point to more and more sea level rise in the future, perhaps at a faster rate than previously thought,” noted Jonathan Overpeck, co-director of the Institute of the Environment at the University of Arizona. “This will make adaptation to climate change more difficult and costly.”
As a consequence of climate change, project sea-level rise is a highly difficult, complex, and controversial scientific problem, according to a report released by the Washington, D.C.-based World Bank.
Using the analysis of “semi-empirical” approach – projecting global sea-level rise by taking into account the observed relationship between past sea-level rise and global mean temperature over the past millennium – a 50 centimeter sea-level rise by the 2050s “may be locked in whatever action is taken now.”
Sea level rise is one of the outcomes of global warming. “The global warming is very simple,” explained Robert Watson, chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “There are increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and thus their concentrations in the atmosphere are going up. As these concentrations increase, the temperature of the earth rises.
The World Bank report – entitled “Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” – maintained: “Limiting warming to 2⁰C may limit sea-level rise to about 70 centimeters by 2100, but in a 4⁰C world over 100 centimeters can be expected, with sea-level rise in the tropics 10-15% higher than the global average.”
A research conducted by the Philippine Country Study to Address Climate Change, the Manila Bay is already subjected to several hazards, including flooding and storms. “Shoreline changes due to reclamation for housing, ports, coastal roads, buildings and other urbanized development are high, adding to an increased threat of inundation,” the study said.
In a weekly forum some years back, a weather specialist said the waters around the archipelago rose by 1.8 millimeter every year from 1961 to 2003. In a presentation, a study was shown that the coastal areas in Davao City, Navotas, Malabon, Cavite, and Legazpi City sank by 15 centimeters from 1970 to 1999.
The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, according to Dr. Rodel D. Lasco, a member of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For one, the country “has a long coastline where millions of people live including in urban centers such as Metro Manila, Cebu, and Davao.”
Let’s take Davao City as a case in point. A report, “Business Risk Assessment and the Management of Climate Change Impacts,” published by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI), said that sea-level rise may create problems for Davao City’s ports.
“Located along the relatively shallow channel between the city and Samal Island, these port facilities are a nerve center for Davao City’s economy, and serve a variety of ships handling both cargo and passengers,” the risk assessment said.
A previous study also pointed out that a six-meter sea level rise in the Davao Gulf could submerge the coastal area of Davao City. According to the study, the Agdao district, Panacan, Sta. Ana wharf, part of the Lanang, Bajada and Matina areas, the whole downtown area, including the City Hall, will be completely under water. “These areas will virtually be part of the Davao Gulf,” it said.
As a result, 40% of the city’s total population will be forced to evacuate to higher areas like the Buhangin district, Catalunan Grande, Calinan, Mintal, and Paquibato. Once the downtown is inundated, businesses have to be relocated to higher areas.
Sea level rise within this century will affect a larger percentage of the Philippine coastline compared with that of other developing countries of Asia and the Pacific region, according to another World Bank report.
“By the end of this century, sea levels in the region are expected to rise by about 125 centimeters, exceeding the global average by 10-15%,” noted the bank report, “Getting a Grip on Climate Change in the Philippines.” “Even assuming the sea level in the region rises at the global average rate of about 100 centimeters, about 14% of the Philippines’ total population and 42% of its total coastal population will be affected by intensifying storm surges resulting from more intense typhoons.”
American bestselling novelist Tom Anthony came to the Philippines when he married his Filipina wife, whom he met in Singapore. Since his wife is from Mindanao, he decided to settle in Davao City.
Two years ago, Anthony built a house near a beach front. The place was so beautiful as it reminded him of another home in California. Trees were trimming all over; there was also a cemented pathway along the shoreline.
Then, something happened. When he returned lately to his home in Davao City, he observed that there were already cracks the cemented pathway. Some portions are no longer passable as it was dangerous to walk above it. In fact, the dead end of the long road from the entrance is now placed with orange signage with the word: DANGER. The cemented fence of a house built near the seashore may soon give way as the waves of the sea kept on encroaching the backyard.
“This is a proof that sea level rise is for real,” says Anthony, the man who wrote the best-selling “Rebels of Mindanao.” “I think people should stop thinking that climate change is a state of mind. We need to do something about it now before it’s too late.”
