“I grew up in the Philippines, and I don’t think there is a problem with the typhoon. It’s normal for us.”—Famous Filipino boxer and former senator
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Expect the unexpected. Filipinos must prepare for the impending typhoons, as the country’s weather bureau indicates that additional typhoons are likely to enter or form within the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) before the year ends.
Mar Villanueva, the deputy administrator of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said in a forum held in Quezon City that throughout the entirety of 2025, the Philippines is projected to experience between 11 and 19 tropical cyclones.
PAGASA, a line agency of the Department of Science and Technology, is the government body mandated to provide adequate warning to typhoon-affected areas and mitigative measures to reduce losses to lives, properties, and the economy of the nation.
Understanding typhoons
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration defines typhoons as “a type of large storm system having a circular or spiral system of violent winds, typically hundreds of kilometers in diameter.”
When storms arise in the Western Pacific, they are referred to as typhoons. Conversely, when these storms occur in the Atlantic Ocean and Eastern Pacific, they are termed hurricanes. In the Indian Ocean, they are identified as tropical cyclones. In essence, all three represent the same meteorological phenomenon.
Among Filipinos, they are simply referred to as bagyo. The term is believed to have originated following a storm in Baguio in 1911, which recorded an extraordinary rainfall of 46 inches within a 24-hour timeframe. The word bagyo, however, was already mentioned in the Vocabulario de la Lengua Tagala, which was compiled in 1613 and published in 1754.
“About 95 percent of the tropical cyclones affecting the Philippines originate in the Pacific Ocean while the rest come from the South China Sea,” says the state-run weather bureau. The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest ocean on earth.
According to PAGASA, typhoons usually occur from the month of June to November. Most, however, occur in the months of July and August “though other months outside of this period are not entirely free from tropical cyclones.”
During the early part of the typhoon season, tropical cyclones pass the northern regions of the country, PAGASA claims. In the latter part (from October to December), the central and southern parts are more prone to the passage.
Based on a study conducted by PAGASA from 1948 to 1989, Northern Luzon experiences five cyclones every two years. Central and Southern Luzon encounter 3 cyclones in 2 years and 5 cyclones in 3 years, respectively. A cyclone passes Eastern Visayas every year.
The weather bureau considers tropical cyclones as “the most commonly occurring natural hazard in the country.”
Weather advisories
PAGASA issues weather advisories for tropical cyclones. The advisory contains general information on the presence of the cyclone even if it is still too far away from the country to pose a threat in the next three days. This gives Filipinos enough time to become aware of a potential threat.
After this, PAGASA releases a tropical cyclone alert which indicates that a tropical cyclone poses an impending threat on a part of the country but still falls short of the bases for raising storm signals.
Finally, a tropical cyclone warning is issued by PAGASA when there is a real and immediate threat to a part or parts of the country from a cyclone. This warning indicates a description of the cyclone’s current location, movement, and intensity.
Typhoon signals
“We issued typhoon signals every six hours and gradually raise the signal as the typhoon approaches,” said a weather bureau official.
The normal lifespan of a tropical cyclone is seven days, but a lingering one can stay for as long as 37 days. Experts say the life span can be cut short when a typhoon either changes direction or changes in intensity.
Many Filipinos are unaware of the moment a typhoon ceases to exist. According to PAGASA, a typhoon is considered to have died when it makes landfall in an area devoid of moisture. Typhoons, indeed, depend on moisture for their sustenance and receive ample amounts from warm bodies of water.
Historically, Filipinos were only familiar with tropical cyclones. These cyclones are categorized based on the intensity and strength of the winds they produce, which include classifications such as tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, and typhoon (or hurricane).
More intense typhoons
Filipinos should be ready for more intense typhoons to hit the country this century, warns a study co-authored by two Filipino scientists from the Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (IESM) of the University of the Philippines-Diliman College of Science.
The future typhoons to hit the Philippines may be far more damaging that today’s typhoons because of climate change, said Dr. Rafaela Jane Delfino and Dr. Gerry Bagtasa, together with colleagues from the United Kingdom.
Based on their study, the two IESM researchers said the forthcoming typhoons are “stronger and more destructive” as they “may have a higher cyclone damage potential” (CDP) than the recent typhoons.
CDP is a metric that considers several factors, including the size of the cyclone and the speed of its winds. The scientists gathered data from recent typhoons and projected these onto likely future climate scenarios to figure out future CDPs. The greater the CDP, the greater potential damage costs, particularly from winds.
The researchers were able to conclusively link climate change to the intensification of the three Philippine typhoons mentioned in the study. They also found that future typhoons may be expected to be stronger and more damaging.
“Like spinning tops, the potentially faster winds and slower movement of these future typhoons could lead to them lingering longer over land and therefore causing more damage,” the study said.
When there’s a typhoon, it triggers a heavy downpour of rain causing floods. But a new research showed that tropical cyclones located hundreds of kilometers away from the nation are frequently more accountable for significant rainfall than those that directly impact the country during the annual “Habagat” or southwest monsoon season, which occurs from July to September, according to researchers from Ateneo de Manila University, the Manila Observatory, and PAGASA.
These findings challenge the common public belief that only tropical cyclones making direct landfall in the country present serious flood threats. The study found that “direct” impact of tropical cyclones contributes an average of 15.4% of rainfall during the Habagat season while their “indirect” impact accounts for more than double that figure. The remaining 51.5% of rainfall is attributed to the monsoon itself, independent of tropical cyclone effects.
The study also said that an average of 33.1% of the rainfall during the southwest monsoon season is generated by tropical cyclones that do not make landfall but instead enhance the Habagat by drawing in substantial moisture from adjacent seas, transforming otherwise moderate monsoon rains into severe downpours.
No way out
Typhoons are a permanent phenomenon. It is impossible to evade them; thus, Filipinos must consistently prepare for the impact of these storms wherever they may occur in the country. The following statement from seasoned journalist Juan L. Mercado serves as a timely reminder:
“Storms are a symbol. The day is coming, for all of us, when a storm throws our lives in utter disarray. Jobs disappear. A relationship falls apart. The doctor says the test results are not good.
“Soon, for each one of us, the waters will rise, winds spin out of control, and the power will go out for good. We can protect ourselves from storms by taking proper precautions. But a storm is coming which the strongest walls, sturdiest retirement plans, the best doctors cannot protect us from.
“Coming to terms with that reality is the most important thing we can do. A storm reminds us that ‘normal life’ must someday break apart. Take advantage of this passing storm to think about the greater storm that is coming for us all.”
