“Global warming has already triggered a sea level rise that could
reach from 6 meters to 25 meters.” – Dr. James Hansen
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The inevitable is happening: The ocean is rising — and its pace is increasing. The most recent State of the Ocean Report from the United Nations Economic, Social and Economic Organization (UNESCO) verifies that the global mean sea level has increased by an average of 3.4 mm annually over the last 31 years.
The State of the Ocean Report 2024, which provides a thorough evaluation of the present and future conditions of the ocean, indicates that the rate of sea level rise is quickening, “largely driven by the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica, along with ocean warming.”
The oceans, which are essential for maintaining the global climatic equilibrium, face significant threats from global warming. The report presents alarming statistics: over the past two decades, the rate at which the oceans are warming has doubled.
In certain areas, including the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, the rise in sea level is already exceeding the global average. “Ocean temperatures are increasing at an unprecedented rate, endangering not only marine ecosystems but also the overall climate balance,” the report stated.
In the Philippines, the rise in sea levels poses a threat of displacing millions of Filipinos residing along the coastline. The country encompasses a total land area of 30 million hectares, distributed across 7,641 islands.
By the year 2050, it is projected that at least 13.6 million Filipinos will be at risk of displacement, as reported by Addressing Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific.
The report, released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), identifies the Philippines as “one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change.” It ranks the country fifth in terms of the number of individuals impacted by rising sea levels.
Even in the absence of rising sea levels, the Philippines is currently facing considerable displacement caused by floods, with around 1.3 million individuals impacted by recent extreme weather occurrences, according to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).
The UN agency added that there was a total of 9.7 million displacements among children due to weather-related calamities, positioning it as a central hub for child displacement on a global scale.
“Governments should not wait to act,” said Bindu Lohani, an ADB official. “By taking steps now, they can reduce vulnerability, strengthen resiliency, and use migration as an adaptation tool rather than let it become an act of desperation.”
There is no way the world can stop the sea level from rising. “The crux of the sea level issue is that it starts very slowly but once it gets going it is practically unstoppable,’’ said Dr. Stefan Rahmstorf, a widely recognized sea level expert from Germany. “There is no way I can see to stop this rise, even if we have gone to zero emissions.’’
By zero emissions, he was referring to greenhouse gases (GHGs) or those gases that have the property of absorbing infrared radiation emitted from Earth’s surface and reradiating it back to Earth’s surface. Examples of GHGs are carbon dioxide, methane, and surface level ozone.
“Climate change is for real,” said Rajendra K. Pachauri, the 2002 to 2015 chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) during the fourth and fifth assessment cycles. “We have just a small window of opportunity and it is closing rather rapidly. There is not a moment to lose.”
Despite this fact, there are still so many who don’t believe in climate change. “I do not know that there are so many who don’t believe in climate change,” Dr. Lourdes Tibig told a group of environmental journalists during a media briefing last year. “They say this climate change we are talking about is a hoax. Because they say the climate has been changing through the millennia.”
That’s true, said Dr. Tibig, a meteorologist and climatologist and a member of the Climate Change Commission’s National Panel of Technical Experts. “Climate has been changing since the start up to now because of natural causes such as changes in the sun’s intensity, earth’s change in orbit as it revolves around the sun.”
The highlights of the most recent IPCC assessment reports have already ended. “We finished the assessment in 2023,” Dr. Tibig said. “With the publication of the synthesis report, the most important highlights of those findings are one human influence warming the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years.”
The analysis of the country’s climate scientists showed that from 1950 “there has been a slight increase in temperatures, becoming faster as we approach the year 2000.” In 2016, the most recent assessment, it was found that the “temperature increase for the whole globe has reached the point of 1.1 degrees Centigrade.”
It goes without saying that the Philippines is in a precarious position. “We have an average of 20 tropical cyclones within the Philippine Area of Responsibility,” Dr. Tibig reminded. “And with the rainfall associated with tropical cyclones, it almost always leads to river floods. It has already been shown that these events can reduce economic growth of affected countries for more than a decade.”
She cited what happened during the period from 1971 to 2014. She said that across all affected countries, the growth losses from severe tropical cyclones and river floods may have accumulated to 6.5% and 5.0%, respectively, over 15 years.
“That is from 1971 to 2014. I would expect that the data, the statistics from the years 2050 to current, when you’re talking of impacts in terms of impacts of tropical cyclones and river floods, it would be much worse than this,” Dr. Tibig reiterated.
As an archipelago, the Philippines is home to more than 7,000 islands. Only about 2,000 islands are inhabited, and more than 5,000 are yet to be officially named. With a coastline of 18,000 kilometers, the Philippines is very vulnerable to sea level rise.
“We have low-lying islands, which we are afraid are going to be underwater permanently once we reach the point of global warming of 1.5,” Dr. Tibig forecasted. “And sea level rise actually results from the melting of the sea ice cover, including ice sheets and glaciers in the polar regions. Because in the polar regions, temperature increases can sometimes be as much as 40 degrees centigrade. So that ice melts actually at zero degrees.”
Once the temperature plunges to change, rather, goes up to more than zero degrees, melting becomes faster. “So, the melting of these glaciers in the polar regions adds to the thermal expansion of the seas and oceans as this warms up,” Dr. Tibig said, adding that sea level rise in the country has been observed to be higher than the global rate – especially during the period of 1993 to 2015.
The country’s weather bureau said that between now and 2100, sea level rise in the country would be at an average of 0.2 meter by the end of the 21st century. But climate scientists contend it’s much worse than that. “Because when projections for sea level rise are done, it depends, the findings will depend on which of these components are included in the modelling,” Dr. Tibig said.
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