“Summers had a logic all their own and they always brought something out in me. Summer was supposed to be about freedom and youth and no school and possibilities and adventure and exploration. Summer was a book of hope.”—Benjamin Alire Saenz in Aristotle and Dante Discover the Secrets of the Universe
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Last Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) formally declared the conclusion of the northeast monsoon, commonly referred to as amihan. This marks the beginning of warmer and drier seasons across the majority of the country.
In light of this recent announcement, the weather agency indicated that the public should anticipate hot and humid weather, reduced rainfall, and elevated temperatures during this timeframe, although certain regions in Northern Luzon may still encounter sporadic northeasterly winds.
“The shift of wind direction from northeasterly to easterly due to the formation of the high-pressure area over the Northwestern Pacific signifies the termination of the northeast monsoon and the start of the warm and dry season,” PAGASA said in a statement.
During a press conference held at the commencement celebration of the 161st National Meteorological Day in Manila, it was stated that the maximum temperature in Northern Luzon is expected to reach 40 degrees Celsius over the next two months.
“We can observe that by April 1, 2026, a significant portion of the country, particularly in Northern Luzon, may experience higher temperatures. By the time we reach May, a larger part of our country, with most PAGASA stations, is anticipated to record warmer temperatures during the month of May,” said senior weather specialist Dr. Joseph Q. Basconcillo.
While it is likely that most provinces across the country will experience near-normal rainfall from April to May, Dr. Basconcillo indicated that the potential for a decrease in water levels within the reservoirs cannot be dismissed.
“We observe that from April to May, the majority of provinces nationwide may experience near-normal rainfall. This implies that the amount of rain we will encounter is expected to be typical. However, we cannot disregard the possibility that many of our water storage facilities, or dams, may face a decline in their usual water levels,” Dr. Basconcillo stated.
The summer season, known locally as tag-init or the “season of heat,” coincides with the dry season, characterized by reduced rainfall and an increase in sunny days. During this time, temperatures generally range from 25°C to 38°C (77°F to 100°F), with April and May being the warmest months.
The relative humidity is elevated, which can make the heat feel oppressive, particularly in lowland regions. Throughout the summer, the majority of the country enjoys clear skies and dry conditions; however, certain eastern areas such as parts of Luzon, Eastern Visayas, and northeastern Mindanao may still experience sporadic rainfall due to their exposure to northeast winds.
With the intense heat of the sun, fires are also common. So much so that every March, the country observes Fire Prevention Month, which was established by Presidential Proclamation 115-A issued by former President Ferdinand Marcos Sr. in 1966.
Data from the Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP) indicates that fire incidents tend to increase during the months of March and April, which is believed to be directly linked to the elevated temperatures associated with the summer season.
When there are fires, there are also burns. No one knows for sure how many people are burned in the Philippines, “but most burn injuries are caused by home accidents,” according to the Philippine Society of Burn Injuries (PSBI).
“Burns are one of the most expensive of traumatic injuries due to the extended hospital stay and rehabilitation,” said a study done by Margarita E. Elloso and Jose Joven V. Cruz. “The injuries result in higher rates of permanent disability and economic hardship for the individual as well as their families.”
Heat strokes are not as serious as burns. Heatstroke, however, is considered the most severe form of heat-induced illness. In fact, it is a medical emergency. “Heatstroke can kill or cause damage to the brain and other internal organs,” says the website WebMd. “Although heat stroke mainly affects people over age 50, it also takes a toll on healthy young athletes.”
There are two features that distinguish heatstroke from other heat disorders: body temperature is higher than 104⁰F, and symptoms of brain damage develop. “Heat stroke often occurs as a progression from milder heat-related illnesses such as heat cramps, heat syncope (fainting), and heat exhaustion,” WebMd claims. “But it can strike even if you have no previous signs of heat injury.”
According to the Merck manual, heatstroke occurs because the body cannot lose heat rapidly enough in extreme heat. “Because the body cannot cool itself, body temperature continues to rise rapidly to dangerously high levels,” it points out.
Summer is also ideal for outdoor activities, beach trips, and exploring the islands before the arrival of habagat, the southwest monsoon in June. But people should watch out; drowning is just around the corner.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) singled out the month of April as having the highest average number of deaths (355) caused by drowning and submersion from 2006 to 2013. May trailed with 316 reported deaths.
Parents should watch their children out when they are swimming. Children should not be left alone while having fun in the water.
A study – Child drowning in the Philippines: The silent killer speaks – cited drowning as the second-leading cause of death among children aged 14 years and below, outnumbering deaths from serious diseases such as tuberculosis, malnutrition, diarrhea, cancer, and meningitis.
Research from United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) showed the drowning rates were highest among boys and girls less than 5 years old compared to other age groups and higher among females than males for all age groups.
In addition, the drowning rates were higher among males under 5 years and among those under 15 years compared to females of the same ages. This gender difference was largest for male toddlers whose relative risk for drowning death was 1.5 times higher than female toddlers, the research pointed out.
According to the Geneva-based World Health Organization (WHO), males are especially at risk of drowning, wit twice the overall mortality rate of females. They are more likely to be hospitalized than females for non-fatal drowning.
Studies suggest that the higher drowning rates among males are due to increased exposure to water and riskier behavior such as swimming alone, drinking alcohol before swimming alone and boating.
