The head of the Regional Epidemiology Surveillance Unit (RESU) reacted to the projection made by the University of the Philippines-Mindanao (UP-Mindanao) that the number of Covid-19 cases in Davao City may hit 2,500 by the end of September based on its Interdisciplinary Applied Modeling laboratory (IAM lab).
Dr. Cleo Fe Tabada, head of the DOH RESU Davao, said in a virtual presser there are too many factors to look at before one can predict what will happen by the end of the month.
She also said that numbers do not signify the real situation but are just reflection of what the people see at the surface and these numbers are affected by a lot of factors. “Una, ang kani nga mga numero are just report from facilities and health workers and the people. Kung ang mga tao musunod sa atong mga health standards, definitely makita sa mga numero nga munaog na and as of the moment we may not see major changes because daghan ug contributors,” Tabada said.
Returning OFWs and locally stranded individuals (LSIs) and the people’s complacency have contributed to the changing numbers of cases, according to the RESU chief.
“Daghan muabot, daghan mulihok, and daghan medyo murag nag-complacent. As we noticed when we go to the communities medyo naa gyud gihapon na when they are between the bounds of their households dili kaayo sila magsuot ug protection but if they go out naa sila protection. Murag kini nga factors nag-increase or nag-enhanced sa numbers. What is very important is if the people learn to protect themselves and to protect their families maybe the efforts of the government and the health workers will become stronger and we can definitely decrease the numbers,” she said.
Based on the data on the provincial Covid-19 cases distribution by the Department of Health 11 (DOH 11) as of September 3, 2020, there are a total of 251 cases in Davao del Norte wherein 84 are active cases; 1,409 total cases in Davao City with 207 active cases; 128 total cases in Davao del Sur with 32 active cases; 174 total cases in Davao de Oro with 64 active cases; 210 total cases in Davao Oriental with 25 active cases; and 42 total cases in Davao Occidental with seven active cases.
Dr. Lenny Joy Rivera, assistant regional director of DOH Davao Center for Health Development (CHD), said as Davao region enters the sixth month of the pandemic, ROFs and LSIs remain major contributor in the number of cases in the region based on their assessment.
‘Pinag-aaralan po talaga natin kung ano ang epekto during the ECQ and GCQ and MGCQ nakikita natin erratic ang data, may time na mataas at may time na mababa pero there are actually reasons behind. Kasi may mga times na nung pumasok na po ang mga ROFs, LSIs so that is the time na umakyat. Pag- wala naman pong dumating, bumababa ang mga kaso,” she said.
Rivera said they are also studying the cases per barangay in terms of local and community transmission.
“Saka yung mga transmission na imported na cases which is coming from the other regions or other areas na papunta ng Davao. Although, makikita natin na bumababa ang cases natin compared before. We are hoping na this will continue pa po at ang lahat ng initiatives especially yung minimum basic health standards ay gagawin pa rin natin so that we can continue the downward slope ng ating mga cases at the same time decreasing the positivity rate. Yun po ang aim at nakikita natin for the past six months at para hindi natin ma-reach yung projected number ng UP-Mindanao na 2,500 cases,” she said.
