by Lovely A. Carillo
The city’s economy is expected to slow down after the Christmas rush as the business sector takes a wait and see attitude before pouring in their money into new investments.
This was the fearless forecast of former Davao City Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Inc. (DCCCII) president Simeon Marfori and businesswoman Joji Ilagan Bian who is eyeing a seat in Congress in the 2010 elections. While the two had varying predictions for next year’s economy, both agree that the election will play a very important role in investments — or the lack of it.
“January is already practically the start of election time, so we can expect everyone, especially businesses that deal with government, as well as the services of the government to be affected by the election fever,” Bian said.
“Everything is expected to fluctuate next year,” she said, as election spending increases. Even the rising services sector will be affected by the fluctuation of prices, she added.
Bian said all investments are on hold because everyone will be taking a wait and see attitude. The greatest problem of the business sector everytime there is an election, she said, is the tradition of non-continuance of the policies of the previous administration.
Businessmen are thus waiting for the election fever to settle down first and see how the new administration is going to treat the old policies, especially involving the business sector.
Marfori said business is expected to slowdown next year, except of course all businesses related to the conduct of the elections like printing, paper production and other allied industries. Expect all these businesses to earn more due to the 2010 elections, he said.
Tension in Davao politics might hamper business
“The business sector is really taking a wait and see attitude, especially here in Davao where tension is already building,” he said.
Davao City’s politics is rife with tension already considering the existing bad blood between House Speaker Prospero Nograles and Mayor Rodrigo Duterte. Nograles will be vying for the Mayoralty post versus Duterte’s daughter Sara while Duterte himself is running for vice mayor against former Mayor Benjamin de Guzman. Nograles’s son Karlo is running for his father’s first district seat in Congress.
If the tension escalates and leads to violence, then this would be a bad sign for the business sector. The most important thing for the business sector is “not really the question of who will win the 2010 election, but the manner in which the election will be conducted,” Marfori said.
“If the elections, both local and national, will go negatively then the economy might follow suit,” he said. But if it is conducted in a level headed manner, he said, then maybe it will even improve the economy.
Marfori said maybe the business sector can temper things out, but at the end of the day, they will not be political. “It is the conduct of the election which is our concern and not the candidates,” he added.
But, whoever wins in the local politics, he said, there is the challenge of addressing both political and economic issues, such as climate change, policy and incentives to address the looming power crisis and the need to push for more rational and long term plans for the city.
Services sector still a winner
Bian said the year 2009 was a very good one for the services sector, including call centers, tourism and technical-vocational schools. And despite the election fever, she said, she expects the services sector to grow bigger by 2010.
Among the sectors that will make it big for the country next year, she predicted, are services, manufacturing, agriculture and electronics. But for Mindanao, Bian said it will still be led by the services sector followed by agriculture and manufacturing. The garments sector will, however, be facing a big challenge, she added, due to competition from China.
Bian said that while most businesses are worried about little investments coming in because of the election fever, she believes that the small and medium enterprises will continue to grow.
“This is the beauty of the SMEs, because they are the least affected even by a change in the local leadership,” she said. And since the city’s economy is mostly led by the SMEs, then business in Davao City will continue to be good even during the election period.
Davao City Investment Promotion Center chief Roberto Teo said he is confident that Davao’s economy will still be good next year, even with the elections. “Moreso with the election’s coming, considering that it will provide big income opportunities for those in the printing, food and other businesses that are in demand during the election period,” he said.
Teo said the city targeted P2 billion worth of investments for 2009, but it has even hit the P5.1 billion mark, almost a P3 billion excess from the target. Teo said property development will still be the top investments for 2010.