Mindanao’s power crisis not getting better, Sec. Dureza

Mindanao’s power crisis is not getting better and even the government is not sugar-coating the real problem this time around.
Dabawenyos who are complaining about the two-hour brownouts—and that’s not even a daily schedule for some areas— should thank the heavens they do not share the plight of those living in General Santos City and Surigao del Sur where brownouts last for up to 3 hours per rotation which is repeated up to four times a day.
And all these is not going to get better—except if manna from heaven comes in the form of sweet, intense rain, possibly never-ending until the whole of Lake Lanao is filled with water enough to run the turbines that would power the lights and appliances in the house of every Juan in town.
“We have a shortfall now of 500 Megawatts but it is going up and down between 385 MW to 700MW,” Mindanao Development Authority (MinDA) chairperson Secretary Jesus G. Dureza said during the Club 888 media forum held at the Marco Polo Davao last Wednesday.
Dureza admitted that Mindanao is already experiencing a shortfall in power supply even with the normal water level in Lake Lanao and even sans the El Nino phenomenon.
This, he added, was predicted many years ago because of the increasing requirements for power without any new generating power plant in the offing except the STEAG hard-coal-fired power plant in Cagayan de Oro with a capacity of 232MW and the solar powered plants in Sarangani and Zamboanga.
Dureza gave a lowdown of the real situation in Lake Lanao when he visited it a week ago. “Lake Lanao is in a very critical water level with only 75 centimeter left before we shut down the power plant,” he said. The water level is receding by 1 cm every two days so we only have 150 days left before we will be forced to shut down the plant to avoid mud and silt going into the turbines.
The water level at Lake Lanao at this time is 668.90 cm but if it reaches the 668.15 cm level then they will no longer be able to release anything as mandated by the Environmental Compliance Certificate of the Agus Plant.
He said only 10 million cubic liters of water per second is being released from lake Lanao now, instead of the full capacity. This is in preparation for the power requirements during the May 2010 elections.
There are actually two plans being prepared today to make sure that there is no power interruption during the election. Plan A is to triple the release of water by up to 100 million cubic liters per second to prevent brownouts a day before, during and after the elections. Plan B calls for the full release of water from Lake Lanao for nine days depending on the requirements of the Commission on Elections.
Dureza said it will take up to September to make up for the water level that will be released in case Plan A is implemented.
Watershed management
Mindanao is getting its water supply from the Agus and the Pulangi power plants. The problem is that Agus 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7, as well as Pulangi are not operating in their full capacity. Dureza said the Agus plant is operating only 10% or 90MW of its full capacity of 900MW. Pulangi on the other hand, is only operating 1/3 of its full capacity and the only way to rehabilitate it is dredging which is quite expensive.
Dureza revealed that one of the culprits for the receding water supply in Agus is the lack of watershed management and this should be looked into in the long term.  He said the watershed area along Agus shows signs of illegal logging as well as new roads and intersection which means there is activity in the area.
Solution
It is actually a dam if you do, damn if you don’t situation for the government. Under the EPIRA Law, the government is no longer allowed to generate power so Pulangi and Agus have to be privatized. A Department of Energy report shows that no big power generating firm dares to invest here because they cannot compete with the government which operates the very cheap hydro power plant.
There are different points of view about the privatization of both power plants. Some people say both Agus and Pulangi are Mindanao legacies and it would be foolhardy to sell the plants. Others say that privatization would mean higher cost of power for the consumers.
But without private investments, Mindanawons can only expect more brownouts in the future which others fear would stop the wheels of industries from running. Which option would you go for?