by Gregorio G. Deligero
The peak demand for power, and the availability of power supply in Mindanao, have almost reached equilibrium level this year, records obtained from the Department of Energy (DOE) show. Hence, to avert the impending power crisis in the immediate years ahead, the Mindanao Grid will need P50.75 billion worth of new power plants. But these new plants, if any, should be fully operating by next year.
In the situation report obtained by Edge Davao, the peak demand for power supply in 2011 in Mindanao is pegged at 1,489 MW while the dependable capacity remains at 1,510 MW.
In the absence of new power plants, the dependable capacity will remain constant at 1,510 MW but the peak demand is calculated to gradually surpass the capacity at 1,574 MW by 2012, at 1,666 MW in 2013 and at 1,763 MW in 2014.
Hydropower plants produce 51% of the dependable capacity, diesel plants produce 29%, coal plants produce 13% while the remaining 7% is sourced from geothermal plants.
From 2010 to 2014, the DOE puts the average annual peak demand growth at 5.76%.
Decreasing
While the 2011 peak demand of 1,489 MW is still below the 1,510 MW dependable capacity level, the DOE said the situation is far from ideal if one takes into account the needed reserve requirement, which is 13.10% of the peak demand.
Thus, the dependable supply (dependable capacity plus reserve requirement) in 2011 should be 1,684 MW or a shortage of 174 MW. The DOE said the shortage will further increase to 270 MW in 2012, to 374 MW in 2013 and 484 MW in 2014.
The failure to attain dependable supply began in 2010 with only 7.2% of the peak demand available for reserve requirement. The rate plunged to 1.4% this year and is calculated to further plummet to -4.1% in 2012, -9.3% in 2013 and -14.4% in 2014.
“The dependable capacity cannot keep up with the peak demand growth,” the report says.
The DOE said putting up 484-MW power plants will entail an average of US$1.17 billion (or P50.57 billion at the current P43.38 exchange rate of the peso to the dollar).
With a coal plant, producing one MW costs US$ 1.8 million to US$2 million (or US$ 871 million- US$ 968 million to produce 484 MW) while a hydropower plant costs US$4 million per MW (or US$ 1.936 billion to produce 484 MW). A diesel plant costs the lowest at US$1.3 million per MW (or US$ 629.2 million to produce 484 MW) but it has the highest fuel cost, according to the DOE.
Delayed
The DOE said construction of power plants should have commenced a couple of years ago as construction period takes 3-5 years for coal and diesel plant and 5-7 years for hydro and geothermal plants.
In the event that no new power plants will be built, the DOE said the Davao region will be hardest hit by the power crisis among areas in Mindanao.
In terms of power usage, the Davao region cornered 51% of power supply generated by the Mindanao Grid.
In contrast, the region contributes only 20% of the power supply since 80% of power generation activities are found in Northern Mindanao, particularly hydropower plants.
Thus, the DOE said, it is imperative for the new power plants to be located in Southern Mindanao.
“We have to entice the private sector to invest in the industry. It will not help a bit if we continue to demonize them,” the situation report said.
