Consumer confidence remains upbeat on economy in Q4 ‘12

Consumer confidence registered its second highest index in the fourth quarter of 2012 as more consumers expect additional jobs and income as well as improvement of infrastructure and better governance in the Philippines.
Confidence Index of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ Consumer Expectation Survey has always been in the negative but the level for the fourth quarter this year improved to -10.4 percent from quarter-ago’s -13.3 percent.
This is the second highest after the -8.5 percent registered in the fourth quarter of 2010.
BSP Department of Economic Statistics Director Rosabel Guerrero, in a briefing Friday, said respondents pointed to more jobs, additional income and higher salary, higher investment inflows and improvement of infrastructure and better governance the increase in the index.
“Consumer confidence remains upbeat in the next quarter and the year ahead,” she said.
Guerrero said outlook for the next quarter and the year ahead remains upbeat with the indices at 6.3 percent and 16.8 percent, respectively .
She said another factor that could have positively impacted on the survey is the news about the possible signing of a Framework Agreement between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
The survey was conducted from Oct 1-12, 2012 while the framework agreement was signed on October 15, 2012.
With regards to key economic indicators, the respondents’ project unemployment, interest rate, prices of basic goods, and inflation to decease while the peso is expected to further strengthen against the dollar.
Relatively, BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo, during the same briefing, said one important thing to note in the latest CES survey is that outlook of respondents that belong to the low income group registered the highest improvement.
Under the CES, the low income group are people with monthly family income of P10,000 and below.
Those included in the middle income group have monthly family income of P10,000-P29,999 while those in the high-income group have family income of P30,000 and above.
“While this is just a one-off indication the outlook of the low-income group on economic conditions of country has shown some improvements,” Guinigundo said.
He said two out of the three aspects of economic situation under the survey namely the family income and economic conditions registered improvement from among the low income group.
Similarly, Guinigundo said consumer’s outlook for the first quarter of 2013 is similar to the outlook of businessmen based on the results of the 2012 fourth quarter Business Expectation Survey wherein employment outlook for the last quarter of this year improved on account of the holiday season. [PNA]