The Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev) warned that inflation could surge to double-digit levels by May if global oil prices spike to $200 per barrel amid tensions in the Middle East.
During a Senate hearing, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan presented the agency’s updated “most severe scenario,” where diesel prices could rise sharply.
Under this scenario, diesel may jump to around P154 per liter in April and P162 per liter in May—an increase of up to 176% from baseline levels. Gasoline prices could also surge to as high as P142 per liter by May.
DEPDev estimates inflation could reach between 11.4% and 14.3% in April, with the full-year average settling at 7.3% to 8.6% in 2026. Even under a milder scenario of $100 per barrel, inflation may still exceed the government’s 2% to 4% target.
The agency also warned of broader economic impacts. In the worst-case scenario, remittances could decline by P167.45 billion due to reduced deployment and partial repatriation of overseas Filipino workers.
Economic growth may slow significantly, with GDP expansion dropping to 3.5% to 4%, below the government’s 5% to 6% target.
Higher unemployment and poverty rates are also expected, with joblessness rising to as much as 5.84% and poverty incidence reaching up to 12.55%, according to DEPDev.
