by Nicasio Angelo Agustin Feng shui experts say that the year 2010 reflects the character of the Tiger – an aggressive, fierce and tough year that is also resilient and with hidden fortune possibilities. According to Lillian Too, a renowned Singapore-based international feng shui expert, the Year of the Tiger – which will start sometime in the first week of February – is one of discordant energies. There are obstacles and frustrations ahead due to clashing elements, and the aggressive nature of the Tiger Year makes things worse. She said that 2010 is a time of tough choices and hard circumstance, without reference to the Philippines in particular! In the Philippines, 2010 is an election year. As early as the month of December 2009, we’ve seen the election advertisements of the presidential wannabees. They are loaded with promises and aspirations for a better Philippines and for greater social and economic development opportunities for all Filipinos. Being an election year, there are certain economic realities and outcomes that we have to embrace. Money in circulation is expected to rise coming from the campaign funds of candidates. Regardless of their sources, these funds will trickle down to individuals and firms in at least three (3) forms. First, individuals can benefit from campaign-induced employment and short-term jobs. Second, advertising and multimedia firms are expected to profit from the demand for campaign materials and paraphernalia. Finally, services and utilities firms are likewise expected to do good during campaign and election periods. The flow of money from individuals to firms and from some firms to other firms would easily be seen with the increased demand for and supply of goods and services, particularly during the campaign period. These increases in supply and demand could however push prices to go up. Thus, the inflation rate for the second quarter of 2010 could be as high as or even higher than that for the month of December 2009. After the elections, the greatest challenge the new President has to face is the huge national budget deficit. By middle of last year, the target for a balanced budget by the end of term of the current President was put behind. The year-end target for the budget deficit was adjusted several times during the second semester of last year. By December 2009, the figures have significantly ballooned blaming the low tax collection rate and Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng as culprits. This is not a foolproof forecast but we can expect that the rate of the GNP increase for 2010 would just be about that for year 2009. Consumption would perhaps save the day because of the increased money in circulation and the stable inflow of remittances from abroad. New private investments would probably decrease as some private firms would adopt a “wait-and-see” attitude until after the election. New public investments, specifically infrastructure, would be nil because of the election ban for new projects and the small amount of funds left in the national coffers. Prior to election, public investments would be limited to those that are on-going and those whose funding have been committed much earlier. While public investment had pushed the GNP up in previous years, it could probably be the reverse for this year. While the contribution of our trade balance in the GNP in the past had only been within average range, we hope that our exports could perform better this year as the export sector could easily isolate itself from the hitches of the elections. Having said these, we hope that our government leaders – both elective and appointive, national and local – would be able to anticipate and manage our situation the best they could and bring out the hidden possibilities in this Year of Elections. Feel free to send your comments to nic_agustin@yahoo.com.
