“Global warming has already triggered a sea level rise that could reach
from 6 meters to 25 meters.” – Dr. James Hansen
***
Two years ago, in April, Dr. Marcelino Villafuerte, a climate scientist of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), was quoted by Philippine Daily Inquirer stating that the sea level in the Philippine sea “had risen by about centimeters, or about 5 inches, over the past two decades.”
Four months later, another Pagasa climate scientist said the sea level in the country is “rising three times faster than the global average.” This is alarming as the Philippines has one of the world’s longest coastlines, stretching more than 36,000 kilometers.
Dr. Rosalina de Guzman, chief of the state weather bureau’s climate data section, is very much concerned as sea level rise would mean putting those living in coastal areas in peril. “This can cause inundation of low-lying areas, especially many of our countrymen who live on the beach,” she said during the Laging Handa briefing.
By 2050, at least 13.6 million Filipinos are at risk of being displaced by sea level rise, according to a report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) entitled, Addressing Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific.
The ADB report considered the Philippines as “one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change.” It ranked the country fifth in terms of number of individuals affected by sea level rise.
The level of the sea globally is rising faster and higher than ever before, creating what the United Nations has described as an “urgent and escalating threat” to people around the world.
Daniel Dickinson, in a UN report, says rising sea levels are the result of ocean warming and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, phenomena which are the direct consequences of climate change.
“Even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which is the goal that countries around the world set as part of the Paris Agreement of 2015, the planet will see a sizable increase in sea water levels,” Dickinson reported.
There is no way the world can stop the sea level from rising. “The crux of the sea level issue is that it starts very slowly but once it gets going it is practically unstoppable,’’ said Dr. Stefan Rahmstorf, a widely recognized sea level expert from Germany. “There is no way I can see to stop this rise, even if we have gone to zero emissions.’’
By zero emissions, he was referring to greenhouse gases (GHGs) or those gases that have the property of absorbing infrared radiation emitted from Earth’s surface and reradiating it back to Earth’s surface. Examples of GHGs are carbon dioxide, methane, and surface level ozone.
Dickinson said sea level rise is a symptom of climate change. The phenomenon refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Such shifts can be natural, due to changes in the sun’s activity or large volcanic eruptions. But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas.
“As global temperatures increase due to climate change, the oceans absorb much of this excess heat,” Dickinson explained. “Warmer water grows in volume, a process known as thermal expansion, which is a significant contributor to sea level rise.”
Rising sea levels have wide-reaching implications not just on the physical environment, but also the economic, social and cultural fabric of vulnerable nations across the world, according to Dickinson.
“Saltwater flooding can damage coastal habitats, including coral reefs and fish stocks, agricultural lands as well as infrastructure, including housing, and can impact the ability of coastal communities to sustain their livelihoods,” Dickinson wrote.
Beyond those consequences, flooding can also contaminate fresh water supplies, promote waterborne diseases threatening people’s health and lead to stress and mental health problems.
In like manner, tourism revenues, a key economic driver especially in many small island developing countries, including the Philippines which has thousands of islands, can suffer as beaches, resorts and other tourist attractions like coral reefs are damaged.
“The combination of so many factors can force people to leave their homes, relocate to higher ground where available or ultimately migrate, which in turn disrupts economies, livelihoods and communities,” Dickinson wrote.
Rising sea levels also create what experts described as “a catastrophic circular feedback loop.”
Take the case of mangrove forests, which protect coastal habitats and store damaging carbon gases that contribute to climate change. Once they are inundated, they can quickly become overwhelmed thus losing their protective qualities.
“Fewer mangroves means more harmful gases in the environment, which drives climate change, and with increased temperatures, sea levels will rise even further,” Dickinson said.
The UN estimated that around 900 million people around the world – that is, one out of every 10 people on earth – live in close proximity to the sea.
In the Philippines, people living in the coastal zones of densely populated cities like Metro Manila, Metro Cebu, Iloilo, Bohol, Palawan, Davao, Cagayan de Oro, General Santos, and Zamboanga will be at risk and potentially suffer catastrophic flooding
