Up to nine tropical cyclones expected until June 2014

Government’s weather agency expects up to nine tropical cyclones in the country during the January-June 2014 period.
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said it expects between zero to one tropical cyclone in the country for each of January, February, March and April this year.
However, PAGASA noted the number of expected tropical cyclones will likely increase beginning May when wind direction in the country changes as the northeast monsoon or ‘amihan’ prevailing at present transitions to the rain-driving southwest monsoon or ‘habagat.’
”We expect between one or two tropical cyclones this May and two or three of these in June,” PAGASA weather specialist Anthony Lucero said Wednesday (Jan. 22) during a climate forum in Metro Manila.
PAGASA expects the northeast monsoon’s peak during theJanuary-March period when tropical cyclone activity is at its minimum.
The northeast monsoon’s gradual weakening may begin in early March, Lucero noted.
For the January-March 2014 period, PAGASA forecast near- to above-normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Most areas nationwide will likely experience this April generally way below- to below-normal rainfall except in some parts of Western Mindanao and portions of Caraga Region where near-to-above-normal rainfall is expected, PAGASA also said.
PAGASA said the country may experience near- to above-normal rainfall in May and June this year.
Lucero noted in areas with Type I climate, rainfall conditions may favor the rainy season’s normal onset between late May to early June.
Type I climate is characterized by two pronounced seasons – dry from November to April and wet during the rest of the year with maximum rains from June to September, PAGASA said.
Luzon’s western seaboard and the Visayas’ Antique province have Type I climate.
Aside from occurrence of tropical cyclones, Lucero said weather systems expected to affect the country during the January-June 2014 period are the northeast monsoon, ridge of a high-pressure area, tail end of a cold front, trough of a low-pressure area, the easterly winds and inter-tropical convergence zone. [PNA]