climate change: Too warm for comfort

By Gerry T. Estrera
“Climate change and global warming are here, no doubt about it,” an editorial by the Business Mirror declares.  Senator Loren Legarda agreed: “Climate change is now a clear and present danger and a national security concern for our country.”
Climate change has become, in recent years, the most fashionable horror story of science.  Scientists, politicians, and laymen are alarmed over the consequences of the environmental threat.
“While human activities during the past century have damaged a long list of natural systems, most of these problems are local or regional in scope and can be reversed in years or decades if sufficient effort is exerted,” writes Christopher Flavin in his book, Slowing Global Warming: A Worldwide Strategy.
But climate change is very different.  As Flavin points out: “Changes to the earth’s atmosphere are global and – for all practical purposes – irreversible not only in our lifetimes but in our children’s and grandchildren’s as well.”
When certain gases – mainly carbon dioxide, methane, ground-level ozone, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons and halons – build up in the atmosphere, the so-called “greenhouse effect” occurs. 
These greenhouse gases, as they are called, trap some of the heat (infrared radiation) the earth emits, increasing the planet’s surface temperature and altering the global climate and all the natural and human activities that depend on it.
“The earth has long experienced a greenhouse effect from naturally occurring levels of carbon dioxide and water vapor,” the Washington-based World Resources Institute (WRI) explains.  “Without this natural greenhouse warming, the earth would be cooler than it is, and life on earth, as we know it, would not be possible.”
It is widely accepted that at least part of the earth’s 0.6 degrees Centigrade warming during the last 100 years is due to emissions of greenhouse gases.  “Most of the observed warming is attributable to human activities,” contends the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of government and independent scientists.
“During this century, the world is expected to continue warming, by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Centigrade,” notes Insights, a publication of a fast-track international development research reporting service.  “Others predicted impacts are a rise in global sea levels of between 0.09 and 0.88 meters by 2100, and changes in weather patterns, including an increased frequency and severity of extreme events such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts.”
With the recent disturbing weather patterns around the globe and the disasters linked to climate change, the world should be prepared for more.  “The debate is over,” says Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, in Oakland, California.  “No matter what we do to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, we will not be able to avoid some impacts of climate change.”
The Philippines, home to almost 96 million people, is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change.  One devastating effect: increase in the number of tropical cyclones and storms.  “Weather patterns could become unpredictable, as would extreme weather events, hurricanes could become much stronger and more frequent,” wrote Lulu Bucay in a brochure produced by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources.
Weather specialist Edna Juanillo said the country normally experiences tropical cyclones up to 20 a year.  But in recent years, stronger typhoons have become more frequent and devastating.  In early 2007, three typhoons hit the country, with an unusual one in February triggering a landslide that killed 250 people in Southern Leyte province.  The ferocity of “Ondoy” that stormed Metro Manila shocked even seasoned experts in the country.
With a coastline stretching 18,000 kilometers, the Philippines is very vulnerable to rising sea level, averred weather specialist Rosa Perez.  Once sea level rise, she claimed, low-lying areas would be inundated, erosion would worsen, seawater would intrude into estuaries and aquifers, and storms would be greater.
A study done by the Philippine Country Study to Address Climate Change some years back found out that Manila Bay was already subjected to several hazards, including flooding and storms.  “Shoreline changes due to reclamation for housing, ports, coastal roads, buildings and other urbanized development are high, adding to an increased threat of inundation,” the study said.
Aside from Metro Manila, the following provinces are also vulnerable to sea level rise: Sulu, Palawan, Zamboanga del Sur, Northern Samar, Zamboanga Sibugay, Basilan, Cebu, Davao del Norte, Bohol, Camarines Sur, Quezon, Tawi-Tawi, Masbate, Negros Occidental, Camarines Norte, Capiz, Catanduanes, Samar, Zamboanga del Norte, and Maguindanao.
Sea level rise would also endanger the drinking water quality and agricultural productivity, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.  This is due to possible salt intrusion in coastal soils and fresh water aquifers.  Already, one of every five residents quaffs water from dubious sources in 24 provinces, the Philippine Human Development Report points out.
 Climate change would have impact with other ecosystems.  Dr. Josefino Comiso, a senior research scientist at the NASA’s Cryospheric Sciences branch at the Goddard Space Flight Center, pointed out that slight change in ocean temperature will definitely affect the country’s coral reefs.
Increased temperature is one stressor that can cause coral reefs to bleach, which in turn diminish their growth and threaten critical habitat for fish and other marine resources.  In 2010, a great majority of local reefs, already stressed by overfishing and sedimentation, suffered from coral bleaching during the severe ocean warming event.
Climate change is most likely to push many wildlife species to extinction.  “If climate zones shift, existing national parks or protected areas would no longer preserve the habitat for plants, fish, and wildlife for which they were established,” Bucay noted. 
“No individual, no community and no state can today escape the effects of climate change,” said Lars Lokke Rasmussen, prime minister of Denmark.  “Climate change knows no boundaries and is felt across the world.”
Katherine Richardson, a climate scientist at the University of Copenhagen, urged: “We have to act and we have to act now. We need to realize what a risk it is they are taking on behalf of their own constituents, the world’s societies and, even more importantly, future generations.”
Is there a glimmer of hope?  “There are two responses to climate change: mitigation and adaptation,” wrote Emma L. Tompkins and W. Neil Adger, of the UK-based Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research.
Mitigation means reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.  “Without serious mitigation, there will be no ‘stabilization’ of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, the climate will continue to change in unpredictable ways and impacts may increase exponentially,” cautioned Tompkins and Adger.
On the other hand, adaptation means adjusting to any new climatic conditions caused by natural and human-induced change.  “Adaptation can be undertaken in anticipation of impacts or after these have occurred,” Tompkins and Adger said.  “These can be initiated by individuals through market exchanges and social interactions, or through coordinated measures by government or other groups.”