Government expects the country to still experience tropical cyclones (TCs) and flooding during 2014’s second half despite the possible onset of the drought-driving El Nino phenomenon this year.
“We expect an average of 13 to 16 TCs to develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from July to December,” Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) weather specialist Anthony Lucero said Wednesday during a briefing in Metro Manila.
Data he presented during the briefing show that two or three TCs are expected to occur in July, three or four TCs in August, another three or four TCs in September, two or three TCs in October, two or three more TCs in November and one or two TCs in December.
This month, TC ‘Florita’ (international name ‘Neoguri’) entered PAR but veered northwards towards Japan, sparing the Philippines.
PAGASA noted climate model output suggests TCs that’ll develop or enter PAR in July may tend to move more along the Philippines’ coast.
The agency’s 10 a.m. July 8, 2014 final advisory on ‘Florita’ located this typhoon 610 kilometers northeast of Basco, Batanes in the Philippines or or 180 km southwest of Okinawa, Japan.
‘Florita’ packed maximum sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour near its center and gustiness of up to 220 kph, PAGASA also said in the advisory.
Lucero noted that TCs are among the weather systems that might affect the Philippines from July to December 2014.
Low-pressure areas (LPAs), the southwest monsoon or ‘habagat,’ inter-tropical convergence zone, occasional thunderstorms, tail end of a cold front and the northeast monsoon are other weather systems that can affect the country as well during the same period, he noted.
PAGASA expects downpour-causing LPAs or TCs to enhance rainfall during the July-August-September period.
People must guard against flooding, particularly during such period, warned PAGASA.
“Occurrence of flooding is highly possible in low-lying areas,” it said.
According to PAGASA, near- to above-normal rainfall can be expected in most parts of the Philippines this month.
The country will likely experience generally normal rainfall in August and September, the agency continued.
PAGASA projects generally below-normal rainfall in most parts of the country by October and November, however.
Even drier conditions with generally below- to way below-normal rainfall are expected in December, PAGASA added.
The October-November-December season is when climate experts expect the chance for El Nino’s development to reach around 80 percent.
Majority of climate models indicate a lower 65 percent chance for El Nino to develop during the July-August-September period, noted PAGASA.
Citing latest available climate models, Lucero said most of these “favor El Nino to develop in the next several months.”
“There’s no El Nino yet, however,” he reiterated.
Last month, PAGASA declared the onset of the 2014 Philippine rainy season.
Generally near- to above-normal rainfall occurred in June over northern and western portions of Luzon as well as most parts of Central and Eastern Visayas, including Central Mindanao, PAGASA reported during the briefing.
The rest of the country experienced that month way below- to below-normal rainfall, added PAGASA. [PNA]
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