We are not spared

By Armando A. Mortejo
“The Philippines is extremely vulnerable to the ravages of climate change,” the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) said in a recent report.  With a coastline of 18,000 kilometers, the Philippines is very vulnerable to sea level rise.
“A continuing rise in average global sea level would inundate parts of many heavily populated river deltas and the cities on them, making them uninhabitable, and would destroy many beaches around the world,” said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of 2,000 scientists which advises the United Nations.
Even if the sea level rises only by one meter, the result will still be devastating to the country.  An analysis made by the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) Climate Change Program listed 10 provinces that would be inundated.
Although Davao City is not in the list, WWF’s Business Risk Assessment and the Management of Climate Change Impacts has included the city as one the cities in danger.  “Davao City is likely to face the impacts of sea level rise, increases in sea surface temperatures, ocean acidification, and inter-annual variability of rainfall,” the report said. “It is also likely that Davao will become the refuge of many migrants –a trend, which has already begun.”
In a seminar on climate change some years back, Councilor Leonardo Avila III said that Agdao district, Panacan, Sta. Ana wharf, part of the Lanang, Bajada and Matina areas, the whole of downtown area, including the City Hall, will be completely submerged. These areas will virtually be part of the Davao Gulf, he said.
As a result, 40 percent of the city’s total population will be forced to evacuate to higher areas like the districts of Buhangin, Catalunan Grande, Calinan, Mintal and Paquibato. Since the downtown area is already inundated, businesses have also to be relocated to higher areas.
But Davao City is not alone. Coastal villages from the town of Carmen to Panabo City (both in Davao del Norte) and Digos City, Davao del Sur will also likely be under water.
According to Avila, the critical year for the sea level rise would be by 2050. As such, he urged that the present generation should do something now to mitigate the impending danger. He also suggested that all government projects and programs should be constructed above the 12-meter safety margin.
“Not only will great numbers of our people be displaced, entire communities including their source of livelihood, their cultures and traditions will likewise be changed and dislocated forever,” deplored Heherson T. Alvarez, the convening chairman of the Asia-Pacific Leaders’ Conference on Climate Change held in Manila in 1995.
It was Dr. James E. Hansen, of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), who first raised the problem of global warming. In 1988, he told an American Senate hearing that “the greenhouse effect is changing our climate now.”
In a Reader’s Digest article, author Robert James Bidinotto, explains greenhouse effect in these words: “When sunlight warms the earth, certain gases in the lower atmosphere, acting like the glass in a greenhouse, trap some of the heart as it radiates back into space. These greenhouse gases, primarily water vapor and including carbon dioxide, methane and man-made chlorofluorocarbons, warm our planet, making life possible.”
“The global warming is very simple,” said Dr. Robert Watson, IPCC chairman. “We are increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and thus their concentrations in the atmosphere are going up. As these concentrations increase, the temperature of the earth rises.”
“While human activities during the past century have damaged a long list of nature systems, most of these problems are local or regional in scope and can be revered in years to decades if sufficient effort is exerted,” Christopher Flavin wrote in his book, Slowing Global Warming: A Worldwide Strategy. “Changes to the earth’s atmosphere on the other hand are global and irreversible not only in our lifetimes but in our children’s and grandchildren’s as well.”
The IPCC projections indicate that, if emissions continue to rise at their current pace and are allowed to double from their pre-industrial level, the world will face an average temperature rise of around 3 degrees Centigrade this century.
Every year, about 20 typhoons hit the Philippines.  The country is ranked the third most vulnerable to climate change in a United Nations survey. “Weather patterns could become unpredictable, as would extreme weather events, hurricanes could become much stronger and more frequent,” wrote Lulu Bucay in a brochure published by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR).
“Climate change science does predict more extreme weather events, and the disaster trend in Mindanao is worrisome,” said Joe Curry, country representative for aid agency Catholic Relief Services (CRS). ““Mindanao is not normally in the path of typhoons.”
History records show that between 1945 and 2010, only 35 typhoons made landfall in Mindanao.  That’s about one every two years.  The two recent typhoons that hit Mindanao were Sendong (which devastated the cities of Iligan and Cagayan de Oro) and Pablo (which left some parts of Davao region completely ruined).
“Mindanao is traditionally ‘outside the typhoon’ belt,” wroter former Press Secretary Jesus Dureza in his column for a local daily.  “Although typhoons are born in the Pacific Ocean east of the island, they start their westerly course northwards and always miss us. In fact, Mindanao boasts of its comparative advantage in agriculture in that we are immune and free from typhoons.”
Sea level rise will also endanger the drinking water quality and agricultural productivity, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.  This is due to possible salt intrusion in coastal soils and fresh water aquifers. Already, one of every five residents quaffs water from dubious sources in 24 provinces, the Philippine Human Development Report points out.
People are not the only ones that will likely be most affected. “Important ecosystems such as mangrove forests could also be lost,” warned Dr. Rodel Lasco, who is the country’s coordinator for the World Agroforestry Center. 
Coral reefs, touted to be the “tropical rainforests of the sea,” are also at risk. Dr. Josefino Comiso, a senior research scientist at the NASA’s Cryospheric Sciences branch at the Goddard Space Flight Center, pointed out that slight change in ocean temperature will definitely affect the country’s coral reefs.
Climate change will push many wildlife species to extinction. “If climate zones shift, existing national parks or protected areas would no longer preserve the habitat for plants, fish, and wildlife for which they were established,” Bucay noted. Some of the species facing doom are Philippine Eagle, tamaraw, calamian deer, Philippine tarsier, and Cebu black shama.
Meanwhile, in the WFF study, Davao City has been observed to be “the least vulnerable city” among the cities identified.  “It has the opportunity to do things the right way,” the study said.  “It has a good hold of sustainable development in water, power, food security driven by agriculture, climate smart zoning, mass transit, land use and infrastructure as well as efficient land and sea access to centers of development nationwide.”
The WWF study suggested: “The trick is to maintain this sustainability over the decades ahead when climate change impacts is expected to worsen in other cities.”
Katherine Richardson, a climate scientist at the University of Copenhagen, urged: “We have to act and we have to act now. We need to realize what a risk it is they are taking on behalf of their own constituents, the world’s societies and, even more importantly, future generations.”
“Without effective action, climate change is going to be larger and more difficult to deal with than we thought,” warned Chris Field, coordinating lead author of the IPCC report.