CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER

By Armando A. Mortejo
With more than 7,000 islands, the Philippines is the third most vulnerable country to weather-related extreme events, earthquakes, and sea level rise. “Absent of land barriers, the Philippines is exposed directly to multiple climate-related hazards such as typhoons (in the northern and eastern parts), floods (in central Luzon and southern Mindanao), landslides (based on terrain), and droughts, making the Philippines more vulnerable to climate risks than other Southeast Asian countries,” the World Bank report, “Getting a Grip on Climate Change in the Philippines,” pointed out.
“In the last several years, the country has suffered extreme weather events including long dry spells, heavy rains, as well as strong typhoons and floods like those caused by Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng,” said Secretary Mary Ann Lucille Sering, Vice Chairperson of the Climate Change Commission (CCC) tasked to coordinate and monitor programs relating to climate change.
“These problems are aggravated by harmful practices that have led to the destruction of forests, mangroves and corals, and the deterioration of the environment in general. Even some areas in Mindanao that we used to consider as ‘typhoon-free’ have recently been hit by very strong typhoons, floods and mudslides,” Sering added.
The Philippines ranks fourth in the Global Climate Risk Index. Fifteen of the 16 regions of the Philippines are vulnerable to sea level rise. In an earlier study titled “Addressing Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific,” the Asian Development Bank projected that rising sea levels could uproot 13.6 million Filipinos by 2050.
Each year, about 20 tropical cyclones – locally known as bagyo – enter the Philippine area of responsibility. “By the end of this century, tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, with a projected increase in the average instantaneous maximum wind velocity at the Philippine coast,” the World Bank report states.
These intense typhoons will bring storm surges that will be superimposed on higher sea levels. Storm surges are projected to affect about 14 percent of the total population and 42 percent of the coastal population, including those living near Manila Bay.
Floods, which often accompany typhoons, are likely to create havocs among informal settlers, which account for 45 percent of the country’s urban population. “(They) are particularly vulnerable to floods due to less secure infrastructure, reduced access to clean water, and lack of health insurance,” the World Bank report stated.
Climate change will definitely reduce food production in the Philippines. The World Bank report stated: “The annual damage to agriculture from typhoons, droughts, and floods has already reached P12 billion, equivalent to 3 percent of total agricultural production.” 
“Many of the country’s poor derive income from agriculture, fishery, and natural resources that are vulnerable to climate change,” said World Bank Country Director Motoo Konishi. “Many of them live in danger zones such as waterways, areas that are low lying and flood-prone, critical slopes as well as coastal zones, making them vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather events.”
Scientists attribute climate change to the rise in global temperature brought about by increased emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. Increased emissions of these gases have been attributed to human activities such as burning of fossil fuels in motor vehicles and power plants, degradation of forests, and change in land use.
The warming of the earth, scientists say, is causing extreme weather events like prolonged droughts, intense rains and flooding, storm surges, and intensifying and more deadly storms.
Climate change impacts are aggravated by rapid environmental deterioration, unsustainable development practices, and population growth and movement, according to the World Bank report.
In Mindanao, for instance, widespread mining and deforestation were blamed for recent flash floods, including those produced by Typhoon Sendong in 2011 which cost the lives of about 1,000 people. In Metro Manila, the neglect of drainage systems and the lack of long-term planning and enforcement exacerbated the floods in 2012 which swamped nearly the entire metropolis.
From 1990 to 2006, the Philippines reportedly experienced record weather-related disasters, including the strongest typhoon, the most destructive typhoons, the deadliest storm, and the typhoon with the highest 24-hour rainfall on record.
“These events are projected to continue to intensify, requiring the Philippines to improve its climate resilience and develop its adaptive capacity to alleviate the risk of catastrophic economic and humanitarian impacts,” the World Bank report said.
One government official puts it this way: “There is no better way of protecting our people from floods, slides, and other hazards brought by typhoons than making them aware and ready when these situations arise.” That’s what disaster preparedness is all about.
“Every year, between 600 and 800 natural disasters occur, some small and localized, others affecting several countries and many thousands of people,” writes Bob Hansford, disaster risk management advisor at Tearfund, a Christian relief and development agency.
Disasters often recur in the same place – annually or with a gap of some years. In 1972, Central Luzon was inundated due to four storms – in July to August – that hit the region. When Typhoons Pedring and Quiel visited Central Luzon, the region was again flooded.
In his article “Managing disaster and building safer communities,” Hansford talks about the four things that happen when a disaster strikes: emergency response, rehabilitation, mitigation, and preparation.
“In the first few days and weeks after a disaster, there is a need for search and rescue, medical care, food, water, sanitation and shelter, as well as emotional support,” he says.
Rehabilitation comes next. “As the weeks pass, houses need to be repaired, water supplies restored, and livelihoods re-instated,” Hansford says. “Rehabilitation is often called recovery.”
Mitigation is closely linked to rehabilitation. Examples include stronger or raised houses, water pumps on raised platforms, and alternative crops to cope better with flood or drought. “Mitigation activities help to ‘build back better,’ making the community more resistant to future hazards,” Hansford says.
 Preparation is getting ready for the next disaster that comes. For a storm or flood, it means establishing a warning system, setting aside food or water stocks, and making ready an evacuation center or training volunteers.
But how prepared are Filipinos when disasters strike? “We do not have a rescue or pre-hospital law in the country,” laments Dr. Teofredo T. Esguerra, a flight surgeon who is an expert on emergency medical services. “Our psyche is not much into it.”
In some of the trainings he conducted in various parts of the country, he found that there are quite a number of rescue teams that were ill-trained and ill-equipped. “They don’t have much safety inductions,” says Dr. Esguerra, who is a member of the World Association of Disaster and Emergency Medicine and International Disaster Response Network. “And to think of, they are performing high-end operations.”
When asked how Filipinos should respond to disasters, Dr. Esguerra replies: “Filipinos should make it like a part of their lives. They should be like Japanese who are always prepared; in fact, they have some survival kits which have already become a part of their day-to-day activities.”
 To be disaster-equipped, Dr. Esguerra suggests that rescuers be trained to follow the 6 S’s (security, safety, survival concepts, “sentido komon” or common sense, scientific, and systematic.) and T’s (tribal skills but technologically supported, tactical and technical, and tough yet tender).
Although there are claims that Filipinos are resilient when it comes to disasters, he dispels the myth.
“We have to be like the Japanese who knew they are sitting on a top of a volcano or Israelis who are surrounded by potential enemies,” Dr. Esguerra suggests. “After all, we are along the disaster and accident corridor. We need to have all the knowledge (of all potential disasters) and the readiness (should these disasters come).