Text and Photos by Henrylito D. Tacio
It would not be a merry Christmas this year as El Niño to take a sweep in some areas of the country and other parts of the world.
“Weak El Niño is likely to affect the rainfall pattern in the different parts of the country in the coming several months,” said Dr. Vicente B. Malano, the acting administrator of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). “Impacts also include warmer air temperatures in varying degrees from place to place and from time to time.”
In a press statement, the state weather bureau said at least 32 provinces “will likely be affected.” These are: Isabela, Aurora, Batangas, Cavite, Rizal, Quezon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Albay, Catanduanes, Masbate and Sorsogon in Luzon; Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Guimaras, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Siquijor and Southern Leyte in the Visayas; and Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, Southern Cotabato, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat, Basilan, Maguindanao and Sulu in Mindanao.
Although the El Niño is still officially classified as a “moderate” strength event, it is on the cusp of attaining “strong” intensity. “(El Niño) is growing and the prediction models say it’s going to get stronger,” Tony Barnston, one of the world’s leading El Niño experts, told Washington Post. “And that’s our prediction, that it will become a strong event, most likely.”
CNN’S Brandon Miller and Nick Thompson reported that the strongest El Niño was the 2.3 event in 1997-98. “The current figure for this year’s El Niño is 1.0, but it’s been climbing for four straight months. Almost every forecast predicts that this year’s El Niño will climb above 2.0,” the two wrote.
On a press conference in the United States, Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, pointed out: “We are predicting that this El Niño could be among the strongest El Niños in the historical record dating back to 1950.”
In the Philippines, 19 to 21 cyclones each year pass the country’s area of responsibility. “Our tropical cyclone comes one after another,” said Anthony Joseph R. Lucero, PAGASA’s senior weather specialist, during the Climate Forum for Agriculture in Davao City earlier this year. However, only six to nine out of those typhoons make landfall.
“The country could still experience normal number of tropical cyclone this year,” Malano said. “However, El Niño may cause the behavior of tropical cyclones to become erratic, affecting its tracks and intensity. The tropical cyclone tracks are expected to shift northward and its intensity could become stronger.”
Historical records show that most of the deadliest typhoons to hit the country happened on the last quarter of the year. The worst on record was the September 27, 1881 typhoon, which killed 20,000 people.
Typhoon Yolanda, which struck in November 7-8, 2013, left 6,241 dead. Also in November was Typhoon Winnie, which killed 1,593 people. Deadliest typhoons which occurred in September include Angela (in 1867, killing 1,800 people) and Nitang (in 1984, killing 1,492 people). Reming lashed its fury between November 29 and December 1 in 2006; some 1,399 people were killed).
No one knows precisely when El Niño first struck. Historians are dating the phenomenon at least as far back as the early 1500s, when the Spanish conquistadores entered South America amid raging storms. Some 400 years before that, there were some records of terrible sweeping through pre-Columbian communities.
Originally, Spanish fishermen named the event as “Corriente del Niño.” The word “corriente” describes the appearance of a warm ocean current flowing from time to time in the eastern equatorial Pacific region along the South American coasts. The word “Niño” was traditionally associated with the birth of Baby Jesus, as it was observed around Christmas. It was used to be considered a local event along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. Through the years, “corriente” was dropped out, leaving only “El Niño.”
According to the Global Environmental Outlook 2000, El Niños are not natural disasters but natural variations in climate. They normally occur every three to five years, lasting 6-18 months. Between El Niños, there are often periods marked by a cooling of the surface waters of the same area of the Pacific, a phenomenon called La Niña (“the girl”). The whole cycle is called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The ocean current is characterized as “a mysterious, massive pond of warm, nutrient-poor seawater” which produces a periodic shift in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific. El Niño varies the surface temperature of the central eastern part of the tropical Pacific by up to 4 degrees Centigrade, with associated changes in the wind and rainfall patterns. This condition disrupts weather around the world leading to nasty extremes.
Does climate change have something to do with the current El Niño? It is still a matter of debate, according to two CNN reporters. “Some research suggests that while the overall number of El Niños is unlikely to increase, the number of ‘super’ El Niños are twice as likely to occur.
For its part, the United Nations is confident that “climate change will affect El Niños in the future. But just because El Niños may not change doesn’t mean their impacts won’t become more severe.”
To dispel public fears on an impending drought brought by El Niño, Malacañang said a government agency has already done a comprehensive El Niño response. In a radio interview, Communication Secretary Herminio Coloma said the action plans of Department of Agriculture have two main features: production support and water management.
As El Niño intensifies in the country, there would be less rainfall which means fewer water supplies. “We cannot stop this El Niño,” said Senator Loren Legarda, chair of the Senate Committee on Climate Change. “The most that we can do is to prepare for its adverse effects in the water and food sectors through water conservation.”
Legarda suggests: “Let us practice measures to efficiently use our water resource like gathering and storing rainwater for daily chores, using water dipper instead of shower when bathing, turning off faucets properly, and immediately repairing leaking pipes and running toilets, among others. We can surpass this dry season if we consolidate all efforts and do our share.”
Meanwhile, Malano urged all concerned agencies of the government to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of the current El Niño. “PAGASA will closely monitor these conditions and regular updates and advisories shall be issued as appropriate,” he said.
