“Wars are poor chisels for carving out peaceful tomorrows.”
– MAYA ANGELOU
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This is one of the most dreaded events that I hate to happen. Taiwan is just about two hours plane ride (or a little bit more) north of the Philippines.
There are (as of my personal recollection) close to 800,000 OFWs in Taiwan earning a living and receiving very decent pay which comfortably provides food, shelter and schooling to their families back home.
It is a quiet place to work far away from your love ones, unlike several other places where we know many OFWs – especially domestics – are being maltreated and a number even slain or killed. Unceasing flow of negative news reports that China is gearing itself to attack Taiwan are emanating from various media sources.
A news dispatch speculated that perhaps Xi Jin Ping may follow the footsteps taken by Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin who, despite clear visible warnings from the EU, NATO, the US and other Western nations, invaded Ukraine two years ago in February.
The military operations, as Putin worded it to avoid using war in his language, came two days after the end of the Winter Olympics hosted by Beijing. In fact, Putin even visited Beijing and lent his presence during the closing rites of the quadrenial competition.
China is consciously weighing in on the American military presence in the Philippines where EDCA sites strategically rose from four to nine that allowed the pre-positioning of highly sophiscated weaponry and military equipment.
Although Philippine and American defense officials insist that these were meant to promptly respond to calamities, China, short of calling it a “b……t,” warned that the US may be fanning the flames of war.
The Chinese have been playing the cat and mouse game. They have been continuously building structures in the contested reefs and islands in the West Philippine Sea. Despite a big number of diplomatic protest notes from the DFA, the Chinese Coast Guard have been driving away and scaring Pinoy fishermen who dare enter and fish into the nine-dash-line area that the Chinese stubbornly claim as a territory that is part of the China mainland.
India does not also like the Chinese attitude. It has huge trade relations with Taiwan where shipments of exports and import from both countries need to traverse the contested body of water (South China Sea) to reach the respective ports of destination. Australia also is into a similar situation because it is also a trading partner of Taiwan. It does not like the presence of Chinese Navy and fighter jets doing reconnaisance around the tiny Taiwanese nation.
If any, the Chinese government may be lying in wait till a better window appears. China trade routes also uses the same route to convey its exports to Europe (from South China Sea passing through the strait of Malacca to the Indian Ocean). If China invades Taiwan and unceremoniiously triggers a halt to the trade situation where the latter is engaged heavily and tied with, Beijing would also be endangering their own economic relations and status.
The Strait of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean, connects the South China Sea to the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea. This is a wide expanse of east-west sea communication linkage that China itself considers as its “maritime lifeline.”
The US, India and other Indo-Pacific allies and partners, could use the maritime route as a chokepoint by installing a blockade that will disrupt the flow of Chinese trade, energy resources and raw materials sourcing. India and China used to have a border conflict but the issue has died down without any significant posturing from each other.
Still, the Chinese keep badgering the Philippines. So, the answer to our headline seem to be a “No.”
At the moment, Taiwan is merely being cowed to toe the line by Xi Jin Ping in a variety of ways. The Taiwanese Armed Forces may be in the ready but they know honestly well that if push comes to shove, they are a mismatch.
China possesses an unparalleled military superiority but the world looks unkindly of it because of its bullying tactics. As inflation becomes global and recession is feared, China is better off enhancing their business and trading connections with the west as friendly and as harmnious as ever.
Much of China’s huge investments may not be earning good dividends. One such is in Pakistan where the country of 260M people is in danger of a civil war. “Leave Taiwan alone” would be a good advice Xi Jin Ping should heed.
(Email feedback to fredlumba@yahoo.com.) GOD BLESS THE PHILIPPINES!
