The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is seeing the weakening of the El Niño phenomenon, which has so far brought below normal rainfall in the region.
“Ang El Niño sa karon nag-weakan na, hinay-hinay na siya nag-weaken,” said Lolita Vinalay, the chief meteorological officer of PAGASA Davao Station.
(El Niño is currently weakening; it is slowly weakening.)
Vinalay said they saw the weakening of El Niño from March and will continue to April and May, where it will lead to neutral conditions that will develop into La Niña, which is characterized by above-normal rainfall conditions.
“Then mu-neutral condition ta after mag dissipate ang El Niño mupadulong na pud sa panahon na mo-occur ang La Niña,” Vinalay said.
(It will go into a neutral condition, and after El Niño dissipates, it will lead to a condition where La Niña will occur.)
She said that at present, there is a 60 percent chance of La Niña developing. “June, July, and August, it will start developing into La Niña,” Vinalay said.
The PAGASA meteorologist added that there are criteria to be met before they can declare the presence of La Niña.
Vinalay said the weakening of El Niño was due to the lowering of sea temperatures.
“Before it reached 2 point something (degree Celsius) of the surface temperature from the normal, it was high; now naghinay-hinay na siya kababa (it is slowly decreasing),” Vinalay said.
She said the surface temperature difference from normal is now 1 point something (degree Celsius).
“Muhinay na siya balik sa iyang normal temperature sa dagat unya kung magdevelop napud ang La Niña muhinay-hinay na pud siya ug cool, dili na siya normal na cool,” Vinalay said.
(The normal temperature of the sea will slowly go back to normal, and then it will slowly become cooler as La Niña develops, which is not normal cooling.)
El Niño requires a threshold value of 0.5 degree Celsius increase in sea surface normal temperature. La Niña requires a threshold value of -0.5 degree Celsius decrease in sea surface normal temperature.
She said if El Niño weakens and eventually disappears, regions with drought conditions will experience normal rainfall.
Vinalay added that a Low Pressure Area has been seen outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, and the trough of the LPA may bring rain in the coming days. (RGA/PIA Davao)
